2-1

Allison McCann at FiveThirtyEight: "The U.S. Is Twice As Likely To Win The World Cup As Japan"

It's interesting that McCann wants us to know that, even though the title of the piece reflects what she shows us, "Things are more even than they seem". If I were a betting man, I'd take Japan, since they are underdogs, probably too much so, and thus are the better bet. The over/under looks to be 2.5, which is a tough call ... under would be 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0. All of those seem possible, but so does 2-1.

I have a rooting interest, so I won't care about any of this. I just want the U.S. to win. I don't know enough about the players to make definitive statements. I know Carli Lloyd is important, but I'm not sure why. The switch in formation seems more important to me than any individual player ... Wambach as a late sub is a good idea, and her absence opens up space for various attacking players, which I guess is where Lloyd fits in. I want Alex Morgan to do well mainly because #GoBears. I have complicated thoughts about Hope Solo, but not about her play ... she instills confidence.

So ... USA 2-1 Japan in 120 minutes.

Meanwhile, soccer goes on. Chile won Copa América, and Argentine fans are trashing Messi, who is only the best player on the planet. Next week, the CONCACAF Gold Cup begins. Whether I continue to post regularly on this blog is up in the air. I don't feel like I've got much to say, and the viewer totals are as miniscule as could be ... since an early "high" of 30 views on June 7, there haven't been more than 11 views in any single day, and twice there was only one view.