bruce a-z
abe vigoda

who to believe?

Book review in today's Chronicle:

World needs an oil change, sooner rather than later
'Out of Gas' ponders the end of our resources

His message: If the developed world keeps consuming certain resources at the present frenzied rate, very soon there will not be any more resources left to consume.

From Reason Online:

Are We Out of Gas Yet?
The continuing "oil crisis" crisis

The fact is, we don't really know how much oil is left. "Available supply" is not merely a geological fact. It depends on technology and economics as well. But we do have some good guesses out there. Henry Linden, a professor of energy and power engineering at the Illinois Institute of Technology, just published an estimate of eight trillion barrels of oil, gas, and oil sand reserves in the Oil and Gas Journal. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates of worldwide conventional oil resources range from 2.248 trillion barrels to 3.896 trillion barrels.

Annual global oil production these days is 24.5 billion barrels. At the current rate of production, oil supplies would last at least 90 years. Taking into consideration various scenarios for future energy use and based on those USGS estimates, the Energy Information Administration sees oil production peaking anywhere from 2030 to 2075. Hardly an imminent crisis.


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