elecseanica, help me out here

This is a soccer post that focuses on soccer, so most of you can quit reading.

Watching the Earthquakes 1-1 draw with Dallas last night, and thinking about their recent performances, have inspired me to try and figure out what the problem is with this team. Which is a good thing, because as an expansion team, their current performance shouldn't matter, yet they have improbably managed to stay in the playoff race. Also, I understand soccer a little but not a lot, so there's plenty of room for me to learn more. We're always capable of learning things, of course, but I know enough about baseball that it's more a case of a little nudge here or there, while American football is so complex I don't even pretend to understand it, I just watch the games and root for the home team. But soccer ... there's lots to learn. So I'm thinking out loud here, hoping someone with more knowledge than I will comment.

The Quakes have a very good goalkeeper in fan favorite Joe Cannon. He's not perfect ... his distribution is worse than I'd like ... but he gives his team and the fans confidence. Defense is the thing I know the least about in soccer, so I can't say much about San Jose's defense. I think that Eric Denton on the left side has a difficult job, because the midfielder playing in front of him thinks only of scoring goals, leaving Denton to cover a lot of ground defensively. And it seems like Jason Hernandez is the best defender the team has. But mostly I don't know my ass from a hole in the ground on that topic.

Up front, the team has serviceable players. Ryan Johnson, Arturo Alvarez, and Scott Sealy have 9 goals and 6 assists amongst them, and while the fact that it takes three players to put up decent stats for one person tells you something, these guys are not the worst players in the league. Not the best, either ... there is room for improvement. But they aren't the biggest problem, as far as I can tell.

In the center of midfield, the team has Ramiro Corrales, Francisco Lima, and Ned Grabavoy. Lima is a mid-season arrival, Grabavoy has played a lot since Corrales was injured. Corrales likes to get forward, but he's an erratic, even poor, shooter, so he's not much help there. Lima plays a more defensive midfield role, and he's solid enough there ... I'd say he's a bit above average for MLS ... he'd be even better if he was a bit better at distributing the ball. Grabavoy is the biggest problem ... he has a few assists, and once in awhile he shows some spirit, but far too often you forget he is out there, and when you don't notice your attacking midfielder, something is wrong. My opinion is that the A-Mid position is the worst hole on the Quakes' team this year.

They have ways to compensate. Their two best field players, by far, are their wingers, Ronnie O'Brien on the right and Darren Huckerby on the left. O'Brien is a master at crossing the ball, and he has twice as many shots as anyone else on the team ... he's not bad at scoring, for that matter, although it shouldn't be his primary job. Here's where I may be wrong, but it seems to me that O'Brien's crossing skills are as good as any in the league, but that the rest of his game, while it has moments of brilliance, are mostly average. That's OK, taken as a whole he's as talented as anyone on the club, but it means he needs help ... he can't do it all by himself.

Huckerby, on the other hand, tries to do it all by himself half a dozen times a game. Which isn't to say he's selfish ... once he's created a chance, he looks for the best finishing opportunity and if that belongs to a teammate, he passes the ball. But he has a remarkably single-minded approach: get ball, run with ball, score. O'Brien can take the slightest space and put a nice cross into the box, but Huckerby can bull his way through non-existent space and create a chance, seemingly by his will alone. It's not a perfect approach, any more than Hucks is a perfect player ... as noted above, he puts a lot of pressure on the left back (Denton) who must cover on defense, and since Huckerby is a right-footed player situated on the left side of the field, he sometimes has to add an extra move or two to get the ball where he wants it, which gives the defense time to adjust. Still, Huckerby's great skill is to make something from nothing.

And he is no longer a secret, having been named league player of the month for September. Opposing coaches may be figuring out what to do. Harass the shit out of Huckerby ... he can't be stopped for an entire match, but he can be double-teamed, he can be fouled, he can have his influence reduced. This opens up other options for the Quakes, of course, but in truth, they have few other options, mainly O'Brien on the other side. And like I say, O'Brien, good as he is, needs others to complete what he starts, more often than not. Early in the year, when the Quakes had O'Brien but not Huckerby, they struggled to score goals. Now, goals are coming with some regularity. But if defenses take Huckerby out of the game, the San Jose offense isn't much better than it was in the first part of the season, and that's not good enough.

I don't think there's a quickie solution to the problem ... the Quakes roster is what it is, no more fancy signings this season. The answer isn't on the bench ... I suppose Ryan Johnson could play more and Scott Sealy less ... Shea Salinas may be the fastest player on the team, useful as a late sub, except he has no goals and no assists, because speed and a cute face aren't enough. If Corrales returned, he'd be an upgrade over Grabavoy. But essentially, what you see is what you get: a decent defense with a strong keeper, excellent wingers with different styles of play, but not much up the middle or up front. There will be matches where Hucks or O'Brien pull a couple of goals out of their asses, and Cannon will keep them in most games. But at this point, the Quakes look more like a good team for an expansion club, than they look like a playoff team with a chance to win it all.

Comments

[Sean]

I've long questioned the inclusion of Grabavoy into the lineup. I have always thought Kelly Gray to be a better player at least defensively, and probably about the same on offense. Like you said, our options in the middle are very limited. The idea of O'Brien moved to the middle, Arturo to right mid, and Johnson up front with Sealy is a nice thought, but as you mentioned, if Ronnie can't cross, you are taking away his biggest weapon in his arsenal.

I'm sure Frank and Doyle know that their lack of a true "#10" is the biggest piece missing in this equation, as well as maybe another goalscorer.

[Steven]

Yeah, in math terms it's something like this:

Which is greater: Winger O'Brien + Midfielder Grabavoy + Forward Alvarez, or Winger Alvarez + Midfielder O'Brien + Forward Johnson?

Hmmm ... context is everything, none of these guys would get more than 5 or 6 on a scale of 10 if we're looking at the entire world, but in MLS? Winger Ronnie is an 8, but MF Ronnie is more like a 6.5. Alvarez: 6 as FW, maybe 6.5 on the wing. Johnson a 6, Grabavoy a 5. So the first option gets ... 19, the second option gets 19. Oops :-).